https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ Atomic wire bulletins on prediction-market activity. Cross-venue spreads, benchmark drift, news-cycle coverage, and volume spikes across Polymarket, Kalshi, and other venues. en-US Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:49:11 GMT ClearMarket Signal v0.2.0 https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/anthropic-ipo-k76-p70/ Kalshi prices 76%, Polymarket 70%, a 6pp gap on the same end-2026 horizon. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:49:11 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/anthropic-ipo-k76-p70/ cross_venue_divergence CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/databricks-ipo-k16-p24/ Polymarket prices 24%, Kalshi 16%, an 8pp gap on the same end-2026 horizon. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:49:11 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/databricks-ipo-k16-p24/ cross_venue_divergence CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/xai-grok-5-release-k16-p11/ Kalshi prices 16%, Polymarket 11%, a 5pp gap with under four weeks to resolution. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:49:11 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/xai-grok-5-release-k16-p11/ cross_venue_divergence CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-ju-vol-202502/ Polymarket at 19%, one-in-five odds of formal Israel-Iran peace deal by month-end. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:46:55 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-ju-vol-202502/ volume_spike VOLUME_SPIKE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-norm-vol-222186/ Polymarket prices 14% chance Strait of Hormuz returns to normal shipping within 12 days. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:46:55 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-norm-vol-222186/ volume_spike VOLUME_SPIKE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-7-vol-642130/ Polymarket at 29%, meaningful but minority probability of formal US-Iran deal within 4 days. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:46:55 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-7-vol-642130/ volume_spike VOLUME_SPIKE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027-vol-36715/ Polymarket at 10%, one-in-ten probability a US ally achieves nuclear capability before year-end. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:46:55 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027-vol-36715/ volume_spike VOLUME_SPIKE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026-vol-5821652/ Polymarket prices only 1% chance Bitcoin reaches $150K within 27 days. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:46:55 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-june-30-2026-vol-5821652/ volume_spike VOLUME_SPIKE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblas-vol-42880/ Polymarket at 5%, market assigns low but non-trivial probability of full Donetsk capture this year. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:46:55 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblas-vol-42880/ volume_spike VOLUME_SPIKE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ken-paxto-vol-668229/ Kalshi consensus at 99% implies Paxton runoff victory is near-certain. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:46:55 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ken-paxto-vol-668229/ volume_spike VOLUME_SPIKE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-29999-99-af-vol-63317/ Kalshi consensus at 99%, market treats NDX breaching 30K by year-end as near-certain. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:46:55 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-29999-99-af-vol-63317/ volume_spike VOLUME_SPIKE https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/inflation-surge-in-2026-vs-bench/ Kalshi prices 98% probability of an inflation surge in 2026. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:45:00 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/inflation-surge-in-2026-vs-bench/ benchmark_drift VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-inflation-reach-more-than-4-in-2026-vs-bench/ Polymarket prices 98% chance CPI inflation exceeds 4% in 2026. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:45:00 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-inflation-reach-more-than-4-in-2026-vs-bench/ benchmark_drift VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-s-lower-bound-reach-2-75-or-vs-bench/ Polymarket prices only 6% chance the Fed lower bound reaches 2.75% or below before 2027. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:45:00 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-s-lower-bound-reach-2-75-or-vs-bench/ benchmark_drift VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-s-upper-bound-reach-5-25-or-vs-bench/ Polymarket prices only 3% chance the upper bound reaches 5.25% or higher before 2027. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:45:00 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-s-upper-bound-reach-5-25-or-vs-bench/ benchmark_drift VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-vs-bench/ Polymarket prices only 4% chance the upper bound ends 2026 at ≥4.5%. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 01:45:00 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-vs-bench/ benchmark_drift VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-agrees-to-iranian-demands-by-june-30-polymarket-68-2026-06-03/ Polymarket prices 68% on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by June 30, despite active military exchanges and stalled talks. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:50:06 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-agrees-to-iranian-demands-by-june-30-polymarket-68-2026-06-03/ news_cycle MOMENTUM_REPRICING https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-2026-kalshi-37-2026-06-03/ Kalshi ladder prices 37% on Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by December 31, 2026, dropping to 25% above $110,000 and 10% above $150,000. Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:30:44 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-2026-kalshi-37-2026-06-03/ news_cycle MOMENTUM_REPRICING https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-holds-with-dissent-at-june-fomc-kalshi-66-2026-06-02/ Kalshi puts 66% odds on the Fed holding rates at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at the June FOMC meeting. Tue, 02 Jun 2026 16:41:44 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-holds-with-dissent-at-june-fomc-kalshi-66-2026-06-02/ news_cycle MOMENTUM_REPRICING https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-kalshi-2026-06-02/ Kalshi ladder implies May 2026 payrolls in the 70k-80k range: 77% above 30k, 53% above 70k, only 45% above 80k. Tue, 02 Jun 2026 15:52:11 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-kalshi-2026-06-02/ news_cycle PRE_EVENT_PRICING https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-end-of-june-polymarket-42-2026-06-02/ Polymarket prices 42% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June, versus 86% by December 31. Tue, 02 Jun 2026 13:35:29 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-traffic-normal-by-end-of-june-polymarket-42-2026-06-02/ news_cycle MOMENTUM_REPRICING https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-unemployment-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-27-2026-06-02/ Kalshi ladder prices only 27% chance unemployment exceeds 5.0% before 2027, dropping to 10% above 6.0% and near zero above 7.0%. Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-unemployment-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-27-2026-06-02/ news_cycle MOMENTUM_REPRICING https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-78-2026-06-01/ Kalshi pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 94% above 3.25%, 78% above 3.50%, only 34% above 3.75%. Mon, 01 Jun 2026 16:15:00 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-78-2026-06-01/ news_cycle MOMENTUM_REPRICING https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-inflation-surge-in-2026-kalshi-implied-4-5-5-0-2026-06-01/ Kalshi ladder prices 65% above 4.5% inflation surge threshold and 37% above 5.0%, implying a market-expected range of 4.5-5.0%. Mon, 01 Jun 2026 04:01:46 GMT https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-inflation-surge-in-2026-kalshi-implied-4-5-5-0-2026-06-01/ news_cycle MOMENTUM_REPRICING