{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093008",
  "record_slug": "russia-captures-all-of-lyman-by-settlement-polymarket-5-2026-09-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia capturing all of Lyman by settlement stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 5%",
  "headline": "Russia captures all of Lyman by settlement: Polymarket 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P275PM3SZ2",
  "target_event_slug": "will-russia-capture-all-of-lyman-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia capture all of Lyman by the settlement date?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xb4aea2573ecac699851b042d39a99b26e43aed7a6b024a4bc827ba220f9fbb78",
    "question_raw": "Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.051,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2014.762265,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts just 5% odds on Russia capturing all of Lyman by the settlement date, a strongly disfavored outcome.",
    "Ukraine's Vivaldi counteroffensive reaching Russian fortifications near Lyman is consistent with the low probability of a Russian capture.",
    "Russia's 27% war-budget increase signals sustained pressure heading into 2027, but the market is not pricing a near-term Lyman breakthrough.",
    "Resolution via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the settlement date is the binding constraint on whether escalated Russian spending translates to territorial gain in time."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Euromaidan Press Staff",
          "source_url": "https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/09/30/russo-ukrainian-war-day-1679/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T07:47:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia raised its 2027 war budget by 27% to a record while Ukraine's Vivaldi counteroffensive reached Russian fortifications near Lyman.",
      "publisher": "Euromaidan Press Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/09/30/russo-ukrainian-war-day-1679/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket holds Lyman capture at 5%; the budget escalation news has not shifted the contract, as the market prices the military balance near Lyman as unfavorable to Russia."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Euromaidan Press Staff: Russo-Ukrainian war, day 1679: Russia raises its war budget by 27% to",
      "url": "https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/09/30/russo-ukrainian-war-day-1679/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T07:47:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-captures-all-of-lyman-by-settlement-polymarket-5-2026-09-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-captures-all-of-lyman-by-settlement-polymarket-5-2026-09-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}