{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091906",
  "record_slug": "russia-invades-another-country-in-2026-polymarket-7-2026-09-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia invading another country in 2026 draws fresh attention at 7%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 7%",
  "headline": "Russia invades another country in 2026: Polymarket 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-19",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JZJP14YR11",
  "target_event_slug": "will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x8011cff605bac25673a202332b678e823cd7d82abad9e9770db01ea625808229",
    "question_raw": "Will Russia invade another country in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.07,
    "volume_24h_usd": 29894.018469000006,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 7% chance Russia invades another country in 2026, with trading volume up 7,639% day over day, signaling the Kursk strike is drawing significant fresh attention.",
    "The IAEA's emergency call for restraint after the Kursk nuclear plant strike is the catalyst for the volume surge, though the 7% price itself remains a long shot.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on a US-Russia military clash by 2026 sits at 5%, consistent with elevated concern that has not yet crossed into consensus alarm.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle; the key settlement question is whether any armed cross-border action qualifies, making the definition of 'invasion' the critical edge case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/drone-hits-cooling-tower-at-russia-s-kursk-nuclear-plant-un-agency/4061660",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T07:47:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A drone struck the cooling tower of Russia's Kursk nuclear power plant on September 19, prompting the IAEA to call for maximum military restraint to prevent a nuclear accident.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/drone-hits-cooling-tower-at-russia-s-kursk-nuclear-plant-un-agency/4061660"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The 7,639% volume surge on the Polymarket contract is the clearest signal that the Kursk nuclear plant drone strike is being treated as a materially new risk event."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: Drone hits cooling tower at Russia’s Kursk nuclear plant: UN agency",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/drone-hits-cooling-tower-at-russia-s-kursk-nuclear-plant-un-agency/4061660",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T07:47:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-invades-another-country-in-2026-polymarket-7-2026-09-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-invades-another-country-in-2026-polymarket-7-2026-09-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}