{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091705",
  "record_slug": "russia-sanctions-bill-becomes-law-kalshi-100-2026-09-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russian sanctions bill becoming law fully priced in",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 100%",
  "headline": "Russia sanctions bill becomes law: Kalshi 100%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-18",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsanctionrussia-26jan01",
  "event_question": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JAN01-27",
    "question_raw": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.998,
    "volume_24h_usd": 99.75,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices the Russia sanctions bill becoming law at 100%, leaving no residual doubt.",
    "House passage and transmission to Trump, combined with the news context, are fully consistent with the market's maximum pricing.",
    "A Polymarket contract on Vladimir Putin remaining president by year-end sits at 4% odds of departure, with trading volume up 2,164% day over day, signaling fresh attention to Russian political risk.",
    "Resolution: Kalshi settles via White House confirmation of signing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Samya Kullab | AP",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/09/17/russia-ukraine-war-sanctions-explainer/320b866e-b2c8-11f1-92c2-5c918f4a6127_story.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The US House approved a sweeping Russia sanctions bill and sent it to President Trump, with Ukraine hoping the legislation will force Russia to negotiate.",
      "publisher": "Samya Kullab | AP",
      "published_at": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/09/17/russia-ukraine-war-sanctions-explainer/320b866e-b2c8-11f1-92c2-5c918f4a6127_story.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi contract at 100% effectively treats House passage as the decisive threshold, with presidential signature seen as a certainty."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Samya Kullab | AP: A sweeping US sanctions bill offers Ukraine new leverage on Russia, bu",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/09/17/russia-ukraine-war-sanctions-explainer/320b866e-b2c8-11f1-92c2-5c918f4a6127_story.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-sanctions-bill-becomes-law-kalshi-100-2026-09-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-sanctions-bill-becomes-law-kalshi-100-2026-09-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}