{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080705",
  "record_slug": "russia-sanctions-bill-becomes-law-kalshi-58-2026-08-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia sanctions bill becoming law holds near 50 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 58%",
  "headline": "Russia sanctions bill becomes law: Kalshi 58%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsanctionrussia-26jan01",
  "event_question": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JAN01-27",
    "question_raw": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.58,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.58,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the Russia sanctions bill becoming law at 58%, a slim majority reflecting genuine uncertainty about White House sign-off.",
    "Senate passage is a necessary but insufficient step; the 58% price implies meaningful doubt that President Donald Trump will sign the bill into law.",
    "A Polymarket contract on Vladimir Putin no longer being president of Russia by end of 2026 sits at just 7%, suggesting markets see no near-term regime change regardless of sanctions.",
    "Resolution via the White House as named source; presidential signature or veto is the settlement trigger."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/senate-russia-sanctions-graham-tariffs-8d37498c3f27d96cae7da147250ebe9f",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:14:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Senate passed a sweeping Russia sanctions bill negotiated by the late Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/senate-russia-sanctions-graham-tariffs-8d37498c3f27d96cae7da147250ebe9f"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 58% reflects Senate passage as bullish news, but the market stops well short of full pricing, leaving a substantial veto risk discount."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Senate passes Russia sanctions bill pushed by late Sen. Lindsey Graham",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/senate-russia-sanctions-graham-tariffs-8d37498c3f27d96cae7da147250ebe9f",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:14:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-sanctions-bill-becomes-law-kalshi-58-2026-08-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-sanctions-bill-becomes-law-kalshi-58-2026-08-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}