{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091605",
  "record_slug": "russia-sanctions-bill-into-law-kalshi-84-2026-09-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russian sanctions bill becoming law holds near 84 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 84%",
  "headline": "Russia sanctions bill into law: Kalshi 84%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsanctionrussia-26jan01",
  "event_question": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JAN01-27",
    "question_raw": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.84,
    "volume_24h_usd": 447.54,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on a Russian sanctions bill becoming law sits at 84%, resolves via the White House signing record.",
    "House passage is consistent with the elevated 84% pricing; the remaining gap to 100% likely reflects Senate procedural and timeline risk.",
    "The bill's House advancement does not guarantee Senate passage or a presidential signature before year-end, which the 16% residual captures.",
    "No companion market with a Senate-specific contract is available in the provided data; the Kalshi contract is the primary pricing signal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Patricia Zengerle",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-takes-up-russia-sanctions-bill-backed-by-late-senator-graham-2026-09-16/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-16T13:02:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The US House took up a sweeping Russia sanctions bill backed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham, advancing it through the chamber.",
      "publisher": "Patricia Zengerle",
      "published_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-takes-up-russia-sanctions-bill-backed-by-late-senator-graham-2026-09-16/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi contract at 84% is consistent with House passage; resolution requires White House confirmation of a signed bill."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Patricia Zengerle: US House takes up Russia sanctions bill backed by late senator Graham",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-takes-up-russia-sanctions-bill-backed-by-late-senator-graham-2026-09-16/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-16T13:02:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-sanctions-bill-into-law-kalshi-84-2026-09-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-sanctions-bill-into-law-kalshi-84-2026-09-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}