{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101407",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-2026-ceasefire-polymarket-10-2026-10-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 10%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine 2026 ceasefire: Polymarket 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19063.05,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 at 10%, keeping the outcome firmly in long-shot territory.",
    "Trump's acknowledgment that both sides lack a path forward is consistent with the low ceasefire probability; the market is not moved by diplomatic ambiguity.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meeting together before 2027 prices at 6%, and the three-way sighting contract at 2%, confirming the market sees no near-term diplomatic breakthrough.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the multi-deadline series structure means the contract resets if a ceasefire is not reached, compressing the remaining 2026 window."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Alisha Rahaman Sarkar",
          "source_url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-trump-putin-zelensky-strikes-black-sea-b3066326.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T07:47:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia launched a massive strike on Kyiv energy infrastructure while Zelensky accused allies of failing to provide missile warnings, as Trump said both sides want the war to end but do not know how.",
      "publisher": "Alisha Rahaman Sarkar",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-trump-putin-zelensky-strikes-black-sea-b3066326.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract via UMA oracle; at 10% the market treats a 2026 ceasefire as a tail event despite ongoing diplomatic contact."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Alisha Rahaman Sarkar: Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin hits Kyiv energy facilities as Zelens",
      "url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-trump-putin-zelensky-strikes-black-sea-b3066326.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T07:47:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-2026-ceasefire-polymarket-10-2026-10-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-2026-ceasefire-polymarket-10-2026-10-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}