{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101106",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-2026-ceasefire-polymarket-11-2026-10-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 remains a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 11%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine 2026 ceasefire: Polymarket 11%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.11,
    "volume_24h_usd": 30715.655643,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices an 11% chance of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026, keeping it firmly in long-shot territory.",
    "The US proposal of economic incentives to Moscow is a concrete diplomatic step, yet the market treats it as insufficient to shift the odds materially.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy being seen together before 2027 sits at just 6%, signaling the market sees no imminent summit catalyst.",
    "Ukraine agreeing to cede territory to Russia by 2026 is priced at only 7% on Polymarket, suggesting the market sees neither a ceasefire nor a territorial concession as likely this year."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Tymur Dubovyk",
          "source_url": "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/86720",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The Trump administration proposed economic incentives including unlocking frozen Russian assets and easing sanctions to secure a limited energy or maritime ceasefire with Ukraine.",
      "publisher": "Tymur Dubovyk",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/86720"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle on a multi-deadline series; all three Ukraine-Russia outcome contracts are priced in tight single-digit to low-double-digit range, reflecting broad market skepticism about 2026 resolution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Tymur Dubovyk: US Proposes Economic Incentives to Russia for Limited Truce",
      "url": "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/86720",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-2026-ceasefire-polymarket-11-2026-10-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-2026-ceasefire-polymarket-11-2026-10-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}