{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102305",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-ceasefire-by-2026-polymarket-13-2026-10-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 stays a long shot at 13 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 13%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026: Polymarket 13%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2751.413852,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 at only 13%, treating the event as a long shot.",
    "The Oleshky localized ceasefire is a narrow, city-level arrangement, Polymarket's 13% reflects limited confidence this translates to a broader agreement by year-end.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-LVRHCH4653) on a ceasefire by June 2026 sits at 20%, implying the market assigns slightly higher odds to the earlier deadline, an apparent data anomaly worth noting but not resolving here.",
    "Resolution is via uma_oracle on Polymarket; the multi-deadline series structure means each deadline settles independently."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "PBS News Hour",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/news-wrap-white-house-says-melania-trump-brokered-localized-ceasefire-deal-in-oleshky",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The White House said Melania Trump brokered a localized ceasefire deal in the Ukrainian city of Oleshky, raising questions about broader peace progress.",
      "publisher": "PBS News Hour",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/news-wrap-white-house-says-melania-trump-brokered-localized-ceasefire-deal-in-oleshky"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket holds the 2026 ceasefire at 13%, treating the Oleshky development as insufficient evidence of a broader peace breakthrough."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "PBS News Hour: News Wrap: White House says Melania Trump brokered localized ceasefire",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/news-wrap-white-house-says-melania-trump-brokered-localized-ceasefire-deal-in-oleshky",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-by-2026-polymarket-13-2026-10-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-by-2026-polymarket-13-2026-10-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}