{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061606",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-ceasefire-by-dec-31-polymarket-47-2026-06-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end wavers near even split",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 47%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Dec 31: Polymarket 47%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LVRHCH4653",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by",
  "event_question": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c19f205507ce03ff5f3be08a8090a5969ea6870cc07b902a4ca2e61dfe48fdd",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.47,
    "volume_24h_usd": 8789.969003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026 at 47%, close to even odds.",
    "G7 unity on Russia pressure and Trump's sanctions signal are consistent with the market's near-50% pricing; neither a clear breakthrough nor collapse is priced.",
    "The Putin-Zelensky meeting by June 30 contract on Polymarket sits at just 1%, showing near-zero near-term diplomatic progress is expected.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; a signed ceasefire agreement, not merely talks or a pause in fighting, is the likely settlement standard."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "DARLENE SUPERVILLE, SYLVIE CORBET and AAMER MADHANI Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://lite.aol.com/politics/story/0001/20260616/e7fad4eabaae8181f70fa5a0b9e499b2",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump signaled swift return of Russian oil sanctions as G7 leaders refocused on Ukraine and discussed pressure on Moscow.",
      "publisher": "DARLENE SUPERVILLE, SYLVIE CORBET and AAMER MADHANI Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://lite.aol.com/politics/story/0001/20260616/e7fad4eabaae8181f70fa5a0b9e499b2"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 47% year-end ceasefire versus 1% for a June 30 Putin-Zelensky meeting captures the wide diplomatic timeline uncertainty."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "DARLENE SUPERVILLE, SYLVIE CORBET and AAMER MADHANI Associated Press: Trump signals swift return of sanctions on Russian oil as G7 refocuses",
      "url": "https://lite.aol.com/politics/story/0001/20260616/e7fad4eabaae8181f70fa5a0b9e499b2",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-by-dec-31-polymarket-47-2026-06-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-by-dec-31-polymarket-47-2026-06-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}