{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101404",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-10-2026-10-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T07:32:17.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 stays a long shot at 10%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 10%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026: Polymarket 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 18841.91,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 10% on Russia and Ukraine reaching a ceasefire in 2026.",
    "Active Russian strikes on energy sites covered by Trump's announced ceasefire are consistent with the market's skeptical pricing, the ceasefire is being violated in real time.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract at 6% on Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by 2026 suggests markets see neither peace nor territorial concession as likely this year.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle; a formal, publicly announced ceasefire agreement between the two parties would be required, partial or unilateral declarations likely would not qualify."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Hanna Arhirova and Samya Kullab",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-burnham-trump-putin-9fe44ec1bb361f19d46dfafb58da46f6",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Zelenskyy voiced outrage as Russia continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite a Trump-announced energy ceasefire, with allies reportedly giving no warning of incoming ballistic missiles.",
      "publisher": "Hanna Arhirova and Samya Kullab",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T07:32:17.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-burnham-trump-putin-9fe44ec1bb361f19d46dfafb58da46f6"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 10% is consistent with the on-the-ground reporting: active strikes and no diplomatic framework in place."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Hanna Arhirova and Samya Kullab: Zelenskyy says Russia keeps striking Ukraine’s energy sites despite Tr",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-burnham-trump-putin-9fe44ec1bb361f19d46dfafb58da46f6",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T07:32:17.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-10-2026-10-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-10-2026-10-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}