{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101201",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-11-2026-10-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds hold near long-shot territory",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 11%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026: Polymarket 11%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.11,
    "volume_24h_usd": 37434.373509000005,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 11% on Russia and Ukraine reaching a ceasefire in 2026, with trading volume up 1,320x day over day, signaling a surge of fresh attention.",
    "Trump's energy ceasefire claim drew immediate contradictions: Russia hit Kyiv and Kharkiv power plants the same day, consistent with the market's skeptical 11% pricing.",
    "Ukraine agreed to comply with the ceasefire order, but Zelensky publicly documented the violations, leaving the diplomatic claim in question.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine ceding territory sits at 6%, suggesting markets see neither a deal nor a concession as likely near-term outcomes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Guardian staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/12/ukraine-war-briefing-russia-attacks-multiple-power-plants-after-trump-energy-ceasefire-claim",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia struck Ukrainian power plants hours after Trump claimed both sides agreed to an energy ceasefire, with Ukraine reporting violations and Moscow staying silent.",
      "publisher": "Guardian staff",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/12/ukraine-war-briefing-russia-attacks-multiple-power-plants-after-trump-energy-ceasefire-claim"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Polymarket ceasefire contract saw volume surge over 1,320x day over day, making it the most actively repriced contract in this news cycle."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Guardian staff: Ukraine war briefing: Russia attacks multiple power plants after Trump",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/12/ukraine-war-briefing-russia-attacks-multiple-power-plants-after-trump-energy-ceasefire-claim",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-11-2026-10-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-11-2026-10-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}