{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101306",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-12-2026-10-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 stays a long shot at 12 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 12%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026: Polymarket 12%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.12,
    "volume_24h_usd": 20168.318222,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 12% odds on Russia and Ukraine reaching a ceasefire in 2026.",
    "Trump's claim that Putin is eager to deal contrasts sharply with the Polymarket contract's skeptical pricing, suggesting the market is not taking the diplomatic posture at face value.",
    "A related Polymarket contract on Ukraine signing a full peace deal before 2027 sits at 8%, and the contract on a Ukraine-Russia deal by June 2026 is at 18%, showing consistent doubt across timeframes.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the definition of ceasefire and any energy-sector-only arrangement likely would not satisfy resolution criteria."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ANI",
          "source_url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/putin-wants-to-make-a-deal-more-than-zelensky-trump-claims-as-ukraine-alleges-energy-ceasefire-violation-1.500708187",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "President Donald Trump claimed Putin wants a deal more than Zelenskyy as Ukraine alleged fresh energy ceasefire violations and U.S. envoys pursued a diesel export arrangement to soften Moscow on peace talks.",
      "publisher": "ANI",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/putin-wants-to-make-a-deal-more-than-zelensky-trump-claims-as-ukraine-alleges-energy-ceasefire-violation-1.500708187"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices a 2026 Russia-Ukraine ceasefire at 12%, well below the optimism implied by Trump's public statements about Putin's dealmaking appetite."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ANI: “Putin wants to make a deal more than Zelenskyy,” claims Trump as Ukra",
      "url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/americas/putin-wants-to-make-a-deal-more-than-zelensky-trump-claims-as-ukraine-alleges-energy-ceasefire-violation-1.500708187",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-12-2026-10-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-12-2026-10-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}