{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101201",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-13-2026-10-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire odds stay long at 13%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 13%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026: Polymarket 13%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 24025.938231000004,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only a 13% chance Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026, a long-shot read.",
    "Trump's ceasefire claim triggered a massive volume surge, trading volume rose 1,320x day-over-day, yet the price held near 13%, showing the market treats the announcement skeptically.",
    "Russia's continued strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure after Trump's post reinforce why the market gives the ceasefire claim little weight.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine ceding territory to Russia sits at 6%, suggesting markets see neither peace nor capitulation as likely outcomes near-term."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/12/ukraines-zelenskyy-accuses-russia-of-violating-trumps-energy-ceasefire",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump announced an 'energy ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine, but Russia continued striking Ukrainian energy sites and the Kremlin rejected a 60-day truce.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/12/ukraines-zelenskyy-accuses-russia-of-violating-trumps-energy-ceasefire"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract on a 2026 Russia-Ukraine ceasefire; extraordinary volume surge with price holding at 13% signals the market is not treating Trump's announcement as credible."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Ukraine’s Zelenskyy accuses Russia of violating Trump’s ‘energy ceasef",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/12/ukraines-zelenskyy-accuses-russia-of-violating-trumps-energy-ceasefire",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-13-2026-10-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-13-2026-10-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}