{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092207",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-14-2026-09-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 remains a long shot at 14 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 14%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026: Polymarket 14%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-22",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2934.081216,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 at 14%, a clear long-shot despite active diplomacy.",
    "Zelensky's push for an energy truce in talks with Trump shows diplomatic momentum, but Polymarket at 14% signals the market does not expect a formal ceasefire to materialize this year.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelensky being seen together before 2027 sits at only 8%, suggesting the market doubts even a summit, let alone a peace deal.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle upon confirmation of a formally agreed ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Tom Balmforth",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-meet-trump-un-push-energy-truce-with-russia-2026-09-22/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in New York for a high-stakes meeting with Trump at the UN, pushing for an energy infrastructure truce with Russia.",
      "publisher": "Tom Balmforth",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-meet-trump-un-push-energy-truce-with-russia-2026-09-22/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 14% reflects a market that sees Zelensky's UN push as insufficient to bridge the gap to a full ceasefire within 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Tom Balmforth: Zelenskiy to meet Trump at UN in push for energy truce with Russia | R",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-meet-trump-un-push-energy-truce-with-russia-2026-09-22/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-14-2026-09-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-14-2026-09-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}