{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102004",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-14-2026-10-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 stays near long-shot odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 14%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026: Polymarket 14%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 169204.192466,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 at 14%, reflecting deep skepticism even as diplomatic channels reopen.",
    "Russia's readiness for mid-November talks and Trump pressure are incremental positives, but the market is not pricing a breakthrough, the gap between talk and ceasefire is wide.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine signing a full peace deal before 2027 (CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424) sits at 10%, implying the market sees a formal peace deal as slightly less likely than a ceasefire alone.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; a ceasefire requires documented cessation of hostilities, not merely resumed negotiations."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "link.cfr.org",
          "source_url": "https://link.cfr.org/public/40979402",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia signaled readiness to resume trilateral talks with the U.S. and Ukraine in mid-November, while the Trump administration repositioned nuclear submarines and pressured Moscow.",
      "publisher": "link.cfr.org",
      "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://link.cfr.org/public/40979402"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket multi-deadline ceasefire contract at 14%; peace deal contract at 10% reveals a narrow but meaningful spread between partial and full resolution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "link.cfr.org: Across the Globe",
      "url": "https://link.cfr.org/public/40979402",
      "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-14-2026-10-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-14-2026-10-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}