{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101507",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-9-2026-10-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine 2026 ceasefire remains a long shot at 9 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 9%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026: Polymarket 9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.09,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3223.44,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 at just 9%, consistent with the collapse of US-led energy truce efforts.",
    "The failed energy ceasefire and resumed infrastructure strikes directly undercut the diplomatic pathway that ceasefire optimists had cited.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on Nord Stream pipeline restarting before 2027 (CM-EVT-ZXVZRRJFH4) sits at 3%, reinforcing a broad no-normalization consensus.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; with under 11 weeks left in 2026, the 9% probability implies the market sees near-certain continuation of active conflict through year-end."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Andrew Roth",
          "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/15/us-effort-to-get-russia-ukraine-energy-ceasefire-collapses",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-15T13:02:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US-brokered energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine collapsed as both sides resumed strikes on energy infrastructure despite Trump warnings.",
      "publisher": "Andrew Roth",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/15/us-effort-to-get-russia-ukraine-energy-ceasefire-collapses"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 9% resolves via UMA oracle; ceasefire collapse is consistent with current pricing and corroborated by companion energy-infrastructure contracts."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Andrew Roth: US effort to get Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire collapses | Ukraine |",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/15/us-effort-to-get-russia-ukraine-energy-ceasefire-collapses",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-15T13:02:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-9-2026-10-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-9-2026-10-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}