{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101007",
  "record_slug": "russia-ukraine-peace-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-10-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russia-Ukraine peace deal by 2026 remains a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "Russia-Ukraine peace by 2026: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-66S3LD3901",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-peace-parlay",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a peace agreement by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x1fb51c9398ae0f164de29cfe3d53f291d4b953145c73a524135b35fb03fa6534",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay",
    "current_price": 0.039,
    "volume_24h_usd": 124.13,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 4% odds on Russia and Ukraine reaching a peace agreement by 2026, one of the lowest-probability contracts in this news cluster.",
    "Putin's explicit statement that talks are unlikely aligns directly with the market; there is no divergence between the news and the pricing.",
    "India's active peace mediation effort (Story 24) and US-Russia diesel deal (Story 25) add diplomatic noise but the Polymarket contract prices none of it as deal-closing.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424) on Ukraine signing any peace deal before 2027 sits at 7%, marginally above the 2026 deadline contract, implying the market sees almost no path in either horizon."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/10/putin-tells-trump-peace-talks-are-unlikely-cites-ukraine-drone-attacks",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T07:48:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Putin told Trump that resumption of peace talks is unlikely, citing ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory.",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/10/putin-tells-trump-peace-talks-are-unlikely-cites-ukraine-drone-attacks"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 3-percentage-point gap between the 2026 and pre-2027 contracts shows the market treats the extra months as nearly valueless given current dynamics."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Reuters: Putin tells Trump peace talks are unlikely, cites Ukraine drone attack",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/10/putin-tells-trump-peace-talks-are-unlikely-cites-ukraine-drone-attacks",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T07:48:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-peace-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-10-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-peace-by-2026-polymarket-4-2026-10-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}