{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091307",
  "record_slug": "russian-sanctions-bill-becomes-law-kalshi-76-2026-09-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Russian sanctions bill becoming law stays favored at 76%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 76%",
  "headline": "Russian sanctions bill becomes law: Kalshi 76%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C6SL3Y8HY3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsanctionrussia-26jan01",
  "event_question": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSANCTIONRUSSIA-26JAN01-27",
    "question_raw": "Will a Russian sanctions bill become law before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.76,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices a Russian sanctions bill becoming law at 76%, resolving via White House.",
    "Continued Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure keep political pressure elevated for legislative action, consistent with the high probability pricing.",
    "The Polymarket contract on the US recognizing Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027 sits at just 3%, suggesting markets see the policy direction as sanctions and support, not accommodation.",
    "Resolution requires White House confirmation of enacted legislation; Senate dynamics (Story 16 notes far-right objections) remain the key procedural risk not yet moving this price below 76%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bloomberg.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-13/russia-strikes-ukraine-power-sites-as-kyiv-targets-refining-hub",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Russia struck Ukrainian power infrastructure while Kyiv targeted a Russian refining hub, escalating the conflict on September 13.",
      "publisher": "bloomberg.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-13/russia-strikes-ukraine-power-sites-as-kyiv-targets-refining-hub"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via White House; enacted legislation, not a floor vote, is the resolution trigger."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bloomberg.com: Russia Strikes Ukraine Power Sites as Kyiv Targets Refining Hub - Bloo",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-13/russia-strikes-ukraine-power-sites-as-kyiv-targets-refining-hub",
      "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russian-sanctions-bill-becomes-law-kalshi-76-2026-09-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russian-sanctions-bill-becomes-law-kalshi-76-2026-09-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}