{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071205",
  "record_slug": "save-act-becomes-law-kalshi-8-2026-07-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-12T01:26:45.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "SAVE Act passage pricing collapses as Trump withholds housing bill",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 8%",
  "headline": "SAVE Act becomes law: Kalshi 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QFC5QGJS96",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsaveact-27",
  "event_question": "Will the SAVE Act become law?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04",
    "question_raw": "Will \"SAVE Act\" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.079,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3278.87,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only an 8% probability that the SAVE Act becomes law, via White House resolution.",
    "Trump's public pressure tactic linking the housing bill to SAVE Act passage has not moved Kalshi's implied probability meaningfully off its low base.",
    "The market is treating Trump's leverage play as unlikely to succeed legislatively, consistent with Senate resistance to the SAVE Act.",
    "Resolves via White House confirmation of presidential signature; the housing bill auto-enacting without signature does not resolve this contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "by",
          "source_url": "https://latimesnow.com/2026/07/12/trump-wont-sign-housing-bill-in-save-america-act-protest/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump refused to sign the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, using it as leverage to pressure the Senate into passing the SAVE America Act voter ID legislation.",
      "publisher": "by",
      "published_at": "2026-07-12T01:26:45.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://latimesnow.com/2026/07/12/trump-wont-sign-housing-bill-in-save-america-act-protest/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via White House; Trump's stated refusal to sign the housing bill is the stated mechanism of pressure, but market assigns low odds to the endgame."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "by: Trump won't sign housing bill, in SAVE America Act protest - LA Times",
      "url": "https://latimesnow.com/2026/07/12/trump-wont-sign-housing-bill-in-save-america-act-protest/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-12T01:26:45.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-12T09:47:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/save-act-becomes-law-kalshi-8-2026-07-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/save-act-becomes-law-kalshi-8-2026-07-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}