{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062406",
  "record_slug": "save-act-becomes-law-kalshi-9-2026-06-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-24T13:58:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "SAVE Act becoming law holds at deep discount despite Trump leverage",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 9%",
  "headline": "SAVE Act becomes law: Kalshi 9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QFC5QGJS96",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsaveact-27",
  "event_question": "Will the SAVE Act become law?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04",
    "question_raw": "Will \"SAVE Act\" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.091,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1388.98,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 9% probability the SAVE Act becomes law, unchanged despite Trump's public pressure campaign.",
    "Trump's housing bill hostage-taking adds political leverage, but the market treats Senate passage of SAVE Act as still highly unlikely.",
    "The separate Kalshi contract on at least one reconciliation bill passing in 2026 sits at 90%, showing broader legislative optimism excludes the SAVE Act.",
    "Resolves via White House confirmation of presidential signature; Senate floor vote is the primary bottleneck per the resolution mechanic."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-signs-housing-bill-capitol/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump cancelled the signing of a bipartisan housing affordability bill, conditioning it on congressional passage of the SAVE Act voter ID measure.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T13:58:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-signs-housing-bill-capitol/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi holds SAVE Act odds at 9%, treating Trump's leverage play as insufficient to overcome Senate resistance to the voter ID bill."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Trump cancels bipartisan housing bill signing, reiterates demand for S",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-signs-housing-bill-capitol/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T13:58:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/save-act-becomes-law-kalshi-9-2026-06-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/save-act-becomes-law-kalshi-9-2026-06-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}