{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062504",
  "record_slug": "save-act-becomes-law-kalshi-9-2026-06-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-25T19:17:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "SAVE Act becoming law wavers near long-shot pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 9%",
  "headline": "SAVE Act becomes law: Kalshi 9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QFC5QGJS96",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsaveact-27",
  "event_question": "Will the SAVE Act become law?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSAVEACT-27-JAN04",
    "question_raw": "Will \"SAVE Act\" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.091,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1388.98,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "White House",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 9% on the SAVE Act becoming law, treating passage as a long-shot despite Trump's high-profile pressure campaign.",
    "Trump's leverage play, blocking a popular housing bill to force the SAVE Act, has not moved the Kalshi contract toward meaningful probability.",
    "The market is pricing the Senate Republican resistance as a significant obstacle; the standoff narrative is consistent with, not contradicted by, the 9% quote.",
    "Resolves via White House confirmation of enactment; the housing bill's veto-proof margins in both chambers are not captured by this contract but illustrate the legislative cross-pressure."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-save-america-act-house-senate-standoff/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump conditioned his signature on a bipartisan housing bill on Senate passage of the SAVE America Act voter-eligibility measure, driving a congressional standoff.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T19:17:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-save-america-act-house-senate-standoff/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 9% implies the market views Trump's gambit as unlikely to succeed within the resolution window, despite public pressure."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Trump's obsession with SAVE America Act drives Congress into a standof",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-save-america-act-house-senate-standoff/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25T19:17:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-26T10:48:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/save-act-becomes-law-kalshi-9-2026-06-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/save-act-becomes-law-kalshi-9-2026-06-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}