{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061208",
  "record_slug": "sbf-released-from-custody-by-end-2026-polymarket-5-2026-06-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-12T14:13:40.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "SBF release from custody by year-end wavers near floor pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 5%",
  "headline": "SBF released from custody by end 2026: Polymarket 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TYKMHKW302",
  "target_event_slug": "sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be released from custody by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5f18a2399d214215045b9e9e9ae2b565c00dd6313a2b853999aaad2dc9fbf85e",
    "question_raw": "SBF released from custody in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.047,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3384.449031,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices SBF's release from custody by end of 2026 at 5%, near the floor even before the appeals loss.",
    "The failed appeal removes the primary legal pathway to release, making the 5% consistent with only residual pardon or extraordinary relief scenarios.",
    "The companion Trump pardon by July 31 contract on Polymarket sits at 3%, suggesting markets see presidential intervention as the main remaining release mechanism.",
    "Resolution is via UMA oracle; release by any mechanism, including pardon, commutation, or bond, would likely resolve the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/06/12/ftx-s-sam-bankman-fried-loses-appeal-of-criminal-conviction-on-fraud-conspiracy-charges",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Sam Bankman-Fried lost his appeal of criminal fraud and conspiracy convictions at the appellate court.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T14:13:40.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/06/12/ftx-s-sam-bankman-fried-loses-appeal-of-criminal-conviction-on-fraud-conspiracy-charges"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 5% was already pricing near-zero before the appeal loss; the ruling closes the legal route and leaves only executive clemency as a residual path."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried loses appeal of criminal conviction on fraud,",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/06/12/ftx-s-sam-bankman-fried-loses-appeal-of-criminal-conviction-on-fraud-conspiracy-charges",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T14:13:40.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sbf-released-from-custody-by-end-2026-polymarket-5-2026-06-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sbf-released-from-custody-by-end-2026-polymarket-5-2026-06-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}