{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061807",
  "record_slug": "scotus-bars-late-mail-ballots-by-nov-2026-kalshi-76-2026-06-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-18T18:06:09.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Supreme Court mail ballot bar consensus hardens at 76 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 76%",
  "headline": "SCOTUS bars late mail ballots by Nov 2026: Kalshi 76%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-8NWCS8ZRW8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxwatsonrnc",
  "event_question": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States bar the counting of mail ballots received after Election Day?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXWATSONRNC",
    "question_raw": "Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day?",
    "current_price": 0.76,
    "volume_24h_usd": 896.03,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 76% on the Supreme Court barring counting of mail ballots received after Election Day.",
    "The Boston ruling narrowing challenges removes a lower-court obstacle and is consistent with Kalshi's elevated 76% probability.",
    "The 2026 midterms proceeding as scheduled is priced at 94% on Polymarket (CM-EVT-99YJSN2LN7), so a ballot-rule fight occurs against a high-certainty election backdrop.",
    "Resolves via Supreme Court decision; the narrowing of lower-court suits increases the probability this reaches SCOTUS as the sole arbiter."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "devdiscourse.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3937105-us-judge-narrows-lawsuits-challenging-trumps-executive-order-restricting-mail-in-voting",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A federal judge in Boston narrowed lawsuits challenging Trump's executive order on mail-in voting, limiting challenges to the order's effect on November's midterms.",
      "publisher": "devdiscourse.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T18:06:09.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3937105-us-judge-narrows-lawsuits-challenging-trumps-executive-order-restricting-mail-in-voting"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via Supreme Court ruling; the Boston court's narrowing decision reduces alternative resolution paths and concentrates the question at the highest court."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "devdiscourse.com: US judge narrows lawsuits challenging Trump's executive order restrict",
      "url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/3937105-us-judge-narrows-lawsuits-challenging-trumps-executive-order-restricting-mail-in-voting",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T18:06:09.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-bars-late-mail-ballots-by-nov-2026-kalshi-76-2026-06-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-bars-late-mail-ballots-by-nov-2026-kalshi-76-2026-06-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}