{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062805",
  "record_slug": "scotus-bars-late-mail-ballots-kalshi-79-2026-06-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-28T23:54:12.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "SCOTUS mail ballot bar consensus hardens near 80 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 79%",
  "headline": "SCOTUS bars late mail ballots: Kalshi 79%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-8NWCS8ZRW8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxwatsonrnc",
  "event_question": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States bar the counting of mail ballots received after Election Day?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXWATSONRNC",
    "question_raw": "Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots received after Election Day?",
    "current_price": 0.79,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1474.76,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the Supreme Court barring counting of mail ballots received after Election Day at 79%, resolving via Supreme Court.",
    "Lower court blocking of Trump's mail voting order is consistent with a drawn-out legal battle reaching the Supreme Court, where the market prices a likely bar.",
    "The appeals court block on Michigan voter data access adds to a pattern of lower court resistance, but markets price SCOTUS as ultimately siding differently.",
    "No companion contract with a clean price is available to form a spread, but 79% reflects a strong majority conviction on the SCOTUS outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jonathan Shorman",
          "source_url": "https://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20260629-trump-order-limiting-voting-by-ma-il-halted-by-federal-court",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A federal court halted Trump's executive order limiting voting by mail, adding to a string of judicial losses for the administration on election rule changes.",
      "publisher": "Jonathan Shorman",
      "published_at": "2026-06-28T23:54:12.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20260629-trump-order-limiting-voting-by-ma-il-halted-by-federal-court"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Supreme Court ruling; 79% reflects market belief that lower court blocks precede eventual SCOTUS resolution favoring the bar."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jonathan Shorman: Trump Order Limiting Voting by Ma il Halted by Federal Court  | Homela",
      "url": "https://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20260629-trump-order-limiting-voting-by-ma-il-halted-by-federal-court",
      "published_at": "2026-06-28T23:54:12.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-bars-late-mail-ballots-kalshi-79-2026-06-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-bars-late-mail-ballots-kalshi-79-2026-06-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}