{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026063006",
  "record_slug": "scotus-hears-tariff-case-by-end-2026-kalshi-22-2026-06-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-30T14:35:43.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "SCOTUS tariff case by year-end holds at low conviction",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 22%",
  "headline": "SCOTUS hears tariff case by end 2026: Kalshi 22%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RJRTFQZDJ0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumptariffhear-27jan",
  "event_question": "Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPTARIFFHEAR-27JAN-X",
    "question_raw": "What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.22,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4.17,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market prices only 22% on the Supreme Court agreeing to hear a case on Trump's tariffs before end of 2026.",
    "The Court's willingness to rule against Trump on birthright citizenship shows judicial independence, but a tariff case requires a circuit split or emergency application the market views as unlikely this year.",
    "The birthright ruling itself does not directly bear on tariff litigation timelines, making this a weaker cross-market read.",
    "Resolves via Supreme Court docket; the Court must formally grant certiorari or agree to an expedited review before December 31, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AOL",
          "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/supreme-court-rejects-trumps-birthright-143543000.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-01T11:20:57+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Supreme Court struck down Trump's birthright citizenship executive order 6-3, delivering a major legal defeat on a core immigration policy.",
      "publisher": "AOL",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T14:35:43.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/supreme-court-rejects-trumps-birthright-143543000.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 22% on Supreme Court resolution; low base rate reflects the Court's discretionary docket control."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AOL: Supreme Court rejects Trump's birthright citizenship order in major bl",
      "url": "https://www.aol.com/articles/supreme-court-rejects-trumps-birthright-143543000.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T14:35:43.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-01T11:20:57+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-hears-tariff-case-by-end-2026-kalshi-22-2026-06-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-hears-tariff-case-by-end-2026-kalshi-22-2026-06-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}