{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072705",
  "record_slug": "scotus-hears-trump-tariff-case-in-2026-kalshi-20-2026-07-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Supreme Court hearing Trump tariff case in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 20%",
  "headline": "SCOTUS hears Trump tariff case in 2026: Kalshi 20%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RJRTFQZDJ0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumptariffhear-27jan",
  "event_question": "Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPTARIFFHEAR-27JAN-X",
    "question_raw": "What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.2,
    "volume_24h_usd": 81.55,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract puts only 20% odds on the Supreme Court hearing a tariff case in 2026, resolving via Supreme Court records.",
    "Despite critics framing the new tariffs as circumventing Congress, prediction markets give only a 1-in-5 chance of a Supreme Court case reaching argument stage this year.",
    "The low odds likely reflect the Supreme Court's docket timeline, not a view on tariff legality, as expedited review is rare absent emergency injunctions.",
    "Companion ladder CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3 prices the effective tariff rate at 7.5-10%, suggesting markets expect tariffs to take economic effect well before any legal resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "nbcwashington.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/trump-administration-double-digit-tariff-breakdown/4134537/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump's new tariffs on more than 60 countries, affecting nearly all US imports, are being scrutinized as a potential end-run around Congress, raising legal challenge questions.",
      "publisher": "nbcwashington.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/trump-administration-double-digit-tariff-breakdown/4134537/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 20% resolves via Supreme Court and measures procedural reach, not the merits of any legal challenge to the new tariff regime."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "nbcwashington.com: Dissecting Trump’s new double-digit tariffs on dozens of countries, N",
      "url": "https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/trump-administration-double-digit-tariff-breakdown/4134537/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-hears-trump-tariff-case-in-2026-kalshi-20-2026-07-27.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
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