{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062604",
  "record_slug": "scotus-strikes-birthright-order-polymarket-94-2026-06-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T18:09:18.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "SCOTUS striking birthright citizenship order solidifies near certainty",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 94%",
  "headline": "SCOTUS strikes birthright order: Polymarket 94%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4HHYC680N8",
  "target_event_slug": "scotus-strikes-down-trumps-birthright-citizenship-eo",
  "event_question": "Will SCOTUS strike down Trump's Birthright Citizenship Executive Order?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x12609f33bc603cb234db2af1d502d143587b697bdc479ddb9344401dbf987914",
    "question_raw": "SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?",
    "current_price": 0.936,
    "volume_24h_usd": 308.329997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "whitehouse.gov",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Supreme Court striking down Trump's birthright citizenship executive order at 94%, resolving via whitehouse.gov.",
    "Pre-ruling coverage noting broad legal consensus against the order aligns with the market's near-certain pricing against it.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract prices the order coming into effect by December 31 at just 7%, consistent with the 94% strike-down probability on Polymarket.",
    "Polymarket's FTC commissioner firing case resolves at 95% in Trump's favor, highlighting that the market differentiates sharply between executive-power wins and constitutional overreach."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/faq-birthright-citizenship-ahead-supreme-courts-ruling/story?id=134215675",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The Supreme Court is expected to rule imminently on Trump's executive order attempting to end birthright citizenship.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T18:09:18.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/faq-birthright-citizenship-ahead-supreme-courts-ruling/story?id=134215675"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via whitehouse.gov; cross-venue Kalshi at 7% on order taking effect confirms directional alignment."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: What to know about birthright citizenship ahead of Supreme Court's rul",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/faq-birthright-citizenship-ahead-supreme-courts-ruling/story?id=134215675",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T18:09:18.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:46:24+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-strikes-birthright-order-polymarket-94-2026-06-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-strikes-birthright-order-polymarket-94-2026-06-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}