{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082305",
  "record_slug": "senate-clarity-act-yea-votes-ladder-below-50-2026-08-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-23T01:22:06.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Senate crypto bill vote count stays below 50 in early pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Senate Clarity Act Yea votes: ladder below 50",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
  "event_question": "Senate Yea votes on crypto market structure bill",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50",
    "question_raw": "How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?",
    "current_price": 0.41,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5.33,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder pricing puts the Senate Yea vote count below 50: 41% chance at or above 50, 40% at 55 or above, falling to 8% at 66 or above.",
    "Bitcoin's surge past $79,000 reflects optimism on the Clarity Act, but the vote-count ladder shows the market has not priced a supermajority outcome.",
    "The 41% at 50-plus Yea votes means passage probability on a simple majority is roughly even, markets are not treating Clarity Act passage as a done deal.",
    "The National Bitcoin Reserve Kalshi contract sits at just 5%, suggesting markets separate crypto regulatory optimism from full-scale government Bitcoin accumulation."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "John Marshall",
          "source_url": "https://www.webpronews.com/bitcoins-sudden-surge-past-79000-shows-how-washington-and-wall-street-can-still-move-markets/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin surged past $79,000 as Washington and Wall Street pushed the Clarity Act crypto regulation bill toward a final vote.",
      "publisher": "John Marshall",
      "published_at": "2026-08-23T01:22:06.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.webpronews.com/bitcoins-sudden-surge-past-79000-shows-how-washington-and-wall-street-can-still-move-markets/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution shows sharp drop-off above 60 Yea votes; resolution depends on a recorded Senate floor vote count."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "John Marshall: Bitcoin's Sudden Surge Past $79,000 Shows How Washington and Wall Stre",
      "url": "https://www.webpronews.com/bitcoins-sudden-surge-past-79000-shows-how-washington-and-wall-street-can-still-move-markets/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-23T01:22:06.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-clarity-act-yea-votes-ladder-below-50-2026-08-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-clarity-act-yea-votes-ladder-below-50-2026-08-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
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