{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110106",
  "record_slug": "senate-control-2026-polymarket-73-2026-11-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-01T20:35:48.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Senate control odds lean toward one party but stay near 75 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 73%",
  "headline": "Senate control 2026: Polymarket 73%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Which party will win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x307a1ed89d60b61002dd5bbf00e1408c5ed2ab3fcdb056191ca7ef9bc34d38f3",
    "question_raw": "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.73,
    "volume_24h_usd": 855823.8760830001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Senate control for one party at 73%, reflecting genuine uncertainty as Trump campaigns for vulnerable seats.",
    "The Michigan Senate race (Rogers vs. El-Sayed) is described as tight in news coverage; the Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-5BB4SFW2V1) puts 77% on Michigan electing a governor and senator from the same party, suggesting market alignment with Democratic strength.",
    "The companion Democrats-win-all-four-core-Senate-races Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-P54SDG6NP7) at 69% implies Democrats are favored in the core contested set, even as overall Senate control remains uncertain.",
    "Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle after official results; last-minute candidate crossovers (Michigan Democrat Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers per news) add resolution risk if results are contested."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Elissa Fitzgerald",
          "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-02/us-midterms-daily-news-briefing-trump-alaska-michigan/107326672",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump is rallying for embattled Senate seats in the final days before the midterms, with Senate control hanging on a handful of competitive races.",
      "publisher": "Elissa Fitzgerald",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T20:35:48.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-02/us-midterms-daily-news-briefing-trump-alaska-michigan/107326672"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; the 73% reading reflects a Senate outcome that remains meaningfully contested even as House odds are far more settled."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Elissa Fitzgerald: US midterms briefing: Trump rallies for embattled Senate seats after H",
      "url": "https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-02/us-midterms-daily-news-briefing-trump-alaska-michigan/107326672",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T20:35:48.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-control-2026-polymarket-73-2026-11-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-control-2026-polymarket-73-2026-11-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}