{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081207",
  "record_slug": "senate-yea-votes-on-crypto-bill-kalshi-ladder-below-50-2026-08-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T09:06:47.420Z",
  "semantic_title": "Senate Yea votes on crypto structure bill seen below 50",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Senate Yea votes on crypto bill: Kalshi ladder below 50",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
  "event_question": "Senate Yea votes on crypto market structure bill",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50",
    "question_raw": "How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?",
    "current_price": 0.42,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies fewer than 50 Senate Yea votes on a crypto market structure bill: 42% above 50 votes, only 33% above 55 votes.",
    "The September delay is consistent with sub-majority pricing, markets do not see a clear path to 60 votes needed for cloture, let alone a simple majority.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744 prices 21% on the CLARITY Act being signed into law by 2026, confirming the broader market skepticism about full passage this year.",
    "Resolves based on the official Senate vote tally; the procedural September 15 vote may itself fail, making even reaching a final count uncertain."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "TradingKey",
          "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262095914-crypto-clarity-act-coinbase-bitcoin-btc-strategy-mstr-sec-cftc-tradingkey",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-13T09:07:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Senate pushed the CLARITY Act procedural vote to September 15, delaying a landmark crypto market structure bill past the August recess.",
      "publisher": "TradingKey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T09:06:47.420Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262095914-crypto-clarity-act-coinbase-bitcoin-btc-strategy-mstr-sec-cftc-tradingkey"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder distribution; the spread from 42% above 50 votes down to 7% above 64 votes shows the market sees passage as an uphill battle even after the procedural scheduling breakthrough."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "TradingKey: Clarity Act Sees Major Breakthrough as Senate Sets First Procedural Vo",
      "url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/cryptocurrencies/btc/262095914-crypto-clarity-act-coinbase-bitcoin-btc-strategy-mstr-sec-cftc-tradingkey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T09:06:47.420Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-13T09:07:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-yea-votes-on-crypto-bill-kalshi-ladder-below-50-2026-08-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-yea-votes-on-crypto-bill-kalshi-ladder-below-50-2026-08-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}