{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080708",
  "record_slug": "senate-yea-votes-on-crypto-bill-seen-below-50-kalshi-2026-08-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Senate Yea votes on crypto bill seen below 50",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Senate Yea votes on crypto bill seen below 50: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
  "event_question": "Senate Yea votes on crypto market structure bill",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50",
    "question_raw": "How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?",
    "current_price": 0.4,
    "volume_24h_usd": 98.16,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices Senate Yea votes on a crypto market structure bill below 50: only 40% chance of reaching 50 votes, 32% at 55, dropping to 7% at 66.",
    "The CLARITY Act delay until September is consistent with the sub-50 vote implied range, suggesting the market already doubted passage before the delay was confirmed.",
    "Trump's public praise for Bitcoin alongside the delay adds political complexity; Senate Majority Leader John Thune faces a separate Kalshi contract at 45% on Trump calling for his removal.",
    "Resolution via vote tally from the Senate Parliamentarian as named source; the threshold for passage (50 vs. 60 for cloture) is itself a settlement ambiguity."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mathew Di Salvo",
          "source_url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/clarity-act-vote-delayed-trump-bitcoin",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:14:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Senate vote on the CLARITY Act crypto market structure bill was delayed until September after Republican lawmakers had expected it to proceed.",
      "publisher": "Mathew Di Salvo",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/clarity-act-vote-delayed-trump-bitcoin"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's ladder puts long odds against the crypto bill reaching a filibuster-proof majority, with the September delay reinforcing the market's cautious pricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mathew Di Salvo: Clarity Act Delayed Until September, Trump Praises Bitcoin",
      "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/news/clarity-act-vote-delayed-trump-bitcoin",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:14:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-yea-votes-on-crypto-bill-seen-below-50-kalshi-2026-08-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-yea-votes-on-crypto-bill-seen-below-50-kalshi-2026-08-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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