{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091507",
  "record_slug": "senate-yea-votes-on-crypto-structure-bill-kalshi-ladder-belo-2026-09-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Senate crypto bill vote count priced well below 50 members",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Senate Yea votes on crypto structure bill: Kalshi ladder below 50",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-17",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
  "event_question": "Senate Yea votes on crypto market structure bill",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50",
    "question_raw": "How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 225.99,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder on Senate Yea votes for a crypto market structure bill prices the market-implied count well below 50: only 6% chance of reaching 50 votes.",
    "The Senate bill's collapse is fully consistent with the ladder's distribution, which shows peak probability mass in the 58-62 range implying the bill fell short of cloture.",
    "A related Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 (CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744) prices at 8%, reinforcing the bleak near-term outlook.",
    "The Kalshi ladder resolves based on the final recorded Senate vote count; a procedural cloture vote total would be the relevant tally."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AFP  and  Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T13:04:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The US Senate crypto market structure bill collapsed, dealing a major blow to efforts to establish the first federal digital asset framework.",
      "publisher": "AFP  and  Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder shows the market had already priced Senate failure well before the bill's collapse was reported."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AFP  and  Reuters: US Senate crypto bill collapses in blow to industry | Crypto News | Al",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T13:04:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-yea-votes-on-crypto-structure-bill-kalshi-ladder-belo-2026-09-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/senate-yea-votes-on-crypto-structure-bill-kalshi-ladder-belo-2026-09-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}