{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091802",
  "record_slug": "sep-2026-fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-09-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen in 3.75-4.0 percent range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sep 2026 Fed funds upper bound: Kalshi 3.75-4.0%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-18",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6BS28TS762",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26oct",
  "event_question": "September 2026 Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26OCT-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.44,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4082.34,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-04T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder prices 98% above 3.75% but only 44% above 4.0%, implying the market centers the upper bound squarely at 4.0%.",
    "The confirmed hike to 3.75%-4% matches the ladder's 98% mass at or above 3.75%, with near-zero probability above 4.25%.",
    "The 44% at-or-above 4.0% likely reflects residual uncertainty around whether this meeting's decision lands exactly at 4.00% versus 4.25%.",
    "The 1% pricing above 4.25% effectively rules out any surprise 50 bps hike scenario in this cycle."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Zachary B. Wolf",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/18/politics/fed-rate-increase-trump-midterms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% at its September 2026 meeting and signaled one additional hike this year.",
      "publisher": "Zachary B. Wolf",
      "published_at": "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/18/politics/fed-rate-increase-trump-midterms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi ladder distribution is now resolving with the confirmed 4.0% upper bound, leaving the 44% at-or-above-4.0% tranche as the operative settlement question."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Zachary B. Wolf: How the Fed’s rate decisions could hurt GOP chances in the midterms |",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/18/politics/fed-rate-increase-trump-midterms",
      "published_at": "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:38:42+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sep-2026-fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-09-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sep-2026-fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-09-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}