{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062903",
  "record_slug": "sept-2026-cpi-above-0-3-kalshi-ladder-52-2026-06-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T14:54:57.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "September CPI rise above 0.3% fractures above the median",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sept 2026 CPI above 0.3%: Kalshi ladder 52%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.4",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.3,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-14T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies a September 2026 CPI print centered near 0.3-0.4%: 52% above 0.3% but only 30% above 0.4%, with sharp tail collapse to 12% above 0.5%.",
    "The 3-year inflation high reported in late June is consistent with the ladder's above-median lean, though the market stops well short of pricing a breakout print.",
    "The distribution's sharp drop between 0.3% and 0.4% suggests the market treats 0.4%+ as a tail risk, not the base case.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for September 2026; each ladder strike settles independently."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://aldailynews.com/key-inflation-gauge-surges-to-3-year-high-mortgage-rate-climbs/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-01T11:20:57+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A key inflation gauge surged to a 3-year high in late June, with mortgage rates climbing alongside rising grocery and gas costs.",
      "publisher": "Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-06-29T14:54:57.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://aldailynews.com/key-inflation-gauge-surges-to-3-year-high-mortgage-rate-climbs/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi CPI ladder for September 2026; market-implied mode sits in the 0.3-0.4% corridor."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Associated Press: Key inflation gauge surges to 3-year high, mortgage rate climbs - Alab",
      "url": "https://aldailynews.com/key-inflation-gauge-surges-to-3-year-high-mortgage-rate-climbs/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-29T14:54:57.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-01T11:20:57+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-2026-cpi-above-0-3-kalshi-ladder-52-2026-06-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-2026-cpi-above-0-3-kalshi-ladder-52-2026-06-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}