{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093004",
  "record_slug": "sept-2026-cpi-m-m-ladder-implies-0-5-0-6-range-2026-09-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "September CPI seen in the 0.5 percent range by markets",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sept 2026 CPI m/m: ladder implies 0.5%-0.6% range",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.2,
    "volume_24h_usd": 144.66,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The CPI ladder for September 2026 implies a monthly gain in the 0.5%-0.6% range: 91% above 0.4%, 59% above 0.5%, but only 20% above 0.6%.",
    "August PCE core held at 3.0% versus a 3.3% consensus expectation, a cooler-than-feared print; yet the September CPI ladder still prices meaningful inflation, not a collapse.",
    "The sharp drop from 59% to 20% between the 0.5% and 0.6% strikes marks the market's conviction line, above 0.6% is a tail outcome.",
    "Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains 'too high' even after the softer PCE print, consistent with the ladder's pricing of continued positive monthly CPI gains."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Eric Revell",
          "source_url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "August PCE inflation came in below expectations at 3.0% core year-over-year, with the Fed's preferred gauge rising less than forecast.",
      "publisher": "Eric Revell",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The ladder is sourced from prediction market strikes; no single-venue binary price is available for September CPI month-over-month."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Eric Revell: August PCE: Fed's favored inflation gauge rose less than expected | Fo",
      "url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T14:25:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-2026-cpi-m-m-ladder-implies-0-5-0-6-range-2026-09-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-2026-cpi-m-m-ladder-implies-0-5-0-6-range-2026-09-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}