{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092902",
  "record_slug": "sept-2026-cpi-monthly-change-ladder-implies-0-4-0-5-2026-09-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "September CPI monthly change stays near 50-50 at 0.5 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sept 2026 CPI monthly change: ladder implies +0.4-+0.5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 CPI monthly change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 93.6,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder puts 89% on CPI above +0.4% but only 54% on above +0.5%, pinning the implied central estimate near +0.4 to +0.5% for September 2026.",
    "The sharp drop in consumer confidence to a 12-year low is broadly consistent with demand softening, yet the ladder shows the market still assigns meaningful odds to a firm monthly print.",
    "The steep drop from 54% to 14% between the +0.5% and +0.6% strikes suggests the market sees little chance of a hot surprise.",
    "Resolves via BLS CPI release; any energy or shelter component surprise could shift the distribution sharply given the narrow spread at the median strike."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "thehill.com",
          "source_url": "https://thehill.com/business/6118506-consumer-confidence-reaches-dozen-year-low/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T07:47:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in over a decade, falling 6.7 points to 81.9 in September per the Conference Board.",
      "publisher": "thehill.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thehill.com/business/6118506-consumer-confidence-reaches-dozen-year-low/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder pricing implies a modest but still-positive September CPI print, with the market not yet pricing in demand destruction from collapsing consumer confidence."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "thehill.com: Consumer confidence falls to a dozen-year low in September",
      "url": "https://thehill.com/business/6118506-consumer-confidence-reaches-dozen-year-low/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T07:47:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-2026-cpi-monthly-change-ladder-implies-0-4-0-5-2026-09-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-2026-cpi-monthly-change-ladder-implies-0-4-0-5-2026-09-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}