{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093003",
  "record_slug": "sept-cpi-mom-implied-0-5-0-6-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "September CPI month-over-month implied near 0.5 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sept CPI MoM implied 0.5-0.6%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.18,
    "volume_24h_usd": 335.44,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies September CPI MoM near 0.5-0.6%, with 60% above 0.5% but only 18% above 0.6%.",
    "August core PCE printing at 3.0% versus 3.3% expected suggests some disinflationary momentum, but the ladder still prices a firm monthly gain.",
    "Rising oil prices cited in the Fox Business story could anchor the 0.5%+ range; the ladder's 91% above 0.4% reflects that floor.",
    "Resolution depends on BLS CPI release; gasoline and shelter components are the key swing variables given the oil price backdrop."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Eric Revell",
          "source_url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "August PCE inflation came in below the 3.3% expected, with core PCE at 3.0%, reinforcing a softer inflation narrative heading into the September CPI print.",
      "publisher": "Eric Revell",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder distribution shows a tight consensus around 0.5%, with the soft PCE print not yet sufficient to push the implied level meaningfully lower."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Eric Revell: August PCE: Fed's favored inflation gauge rose less than expected | Fo",
      "url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/august-2026-pce-inflation",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-cpi-mom-implied-0-5-0-6-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-cpi-mom-implied-0-5-0-6-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}