{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092904",
  "record_slug": "sept-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-5-0-6-ladder-2026-09-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "September CPI monthly change seen between 0.5 and 0.6 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sept CPI monthly change seen 0.5-0.6%: ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F9NPW9F1V9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 CPI monthly change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26SEP-T0.6",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.17,
    "volume_24h_usd": 150.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-13T13:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder pins September CPI monthly change in the 0.5-0.6% range: 54% above 0.5% but only 17% above 0.6%, a relatively tight distribution.",
    "Collapsing consumer confidence to a 12-year low is not yet reflected as downward pressure on the CPI ladder, which still prices a moderate monthly gain.",
    "August core PCE came in at 3.0% year-over-year, softer than expected; if that disinflationary impulse carries into September CPI, the 0.6%-plus tail could erode further.",
    "Resolution source is unspecified; the BLS typically releases the following month's CPI mid-month, making this an October data event."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "thehill.com",
          "source_url": "https://thehill.com/business/6118506-consumer-confidence-reaches-dozen-year-low/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September, its lowest level in over a decade, as consumers grow more pessimistic.",
      "publisher": "thehill.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thehill.com/business/6118506-consumer-confidence-reaches-dozen-year-low/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder event carries no named venue; resolution mechanics and source are unspecified in the provided data."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "thehill.com: Consumer confidence falls to a dozen-year low in September",
      "url": "https://thehill.com/business/6118506-consumer-confidence-reaches-dozen-year-low/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-5-0-6-ladder-2026-09-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-5-0-6-ladder-2026-09-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}