{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081401",
  "record_slug": "sept-fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-3-50-3-75-implied-2026-08-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T17:59:28.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen holding at 3.50-3.75%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sept Fed funds upper bound: Kalshi 3.50-3.75% implied",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound following next Fed decision",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.26,
    "volume_24h_usd": 657.95,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the post-decision Fed funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% chance above 3.50%, only 26% above 3.75%.",
    "News reports hawks may resist a pause at Jackson Hole, but the distribution shows no meaningful probability above 4.00%, consistent with a market holding firmly to a hold.",
    "Separately, the Kalshi contract on whether the Fed raises rates at all (multi-deadline series, 2026-2028) sits at 48%, suggesting rate-hike risk is fully priced into a longer horizon, not September.",
    "Resolution tracks the actual upper bound target set by the Federal Reserve following its next policy decision."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "uk.finance.yahoo.com",
          "source_url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-bet-on-a-pause-for-september-but-fed-hawks-may-not-be-swayed-ahead-of-jackson-hole-175928197.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Markets are pricing a September Fed pause as cooling inflation and soft spending data dominate ahead of Jackson Hole, though Fed hawks may resist.",
      "publisher": "uk.finance.yahoo.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T17:59:28.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-bet-on-a-pause-for-september-but-fed-hawks-may-not-be-swayed-ahead-of-jackson-hole-175928197.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covering the post-decision Fed funds upper bound shows a tightly clustered consensus around 3.50-3.75%, with the tail above 3.75% priced at just 26%."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "uk.finance.yahoo.com: Markets bet on a pause for September, but Fed hawks may not be swayed",
      "url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/markets-bet-on-a-pause-for-september-but-fed-hawks-may-not-be-swayed-ahead-of-jackson-hole-175928197.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T17:59:28.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-3-50-3-75-implied-2026-08-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-3-50-3-75-implied-2026-08-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}