{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082901",
  "record_slug": "sept-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-2026-08-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds above 4 percent after September stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sept Fed funds upper bound seen 3.75-4.0%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound after September 2026 FOMC",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.37,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.37,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the post-September Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.0% range: 93% chance above 3.50%, but only 37% above 4.0%.",
    "Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech is partially consistent with the pricing: markets see a hike as plausible but not the base case, stopping well short of a full 4%-plus scenario.",
    "The 75% probability above 3.75% suggests the market is pricing roughly one additional hike from the current hold, not the multi-hike cycle Warsh's language could imply.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) shows nearly identical distribution, 95% above 3.50% but only 6% above 4.0%, reinforcing the single-hike consensus read."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "pbs.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/warsh-raises-stakes-for-feds-next-meeting-and-other-takeaways-from-jackson-hole-conference",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled at Jackson Hole that rate hikes may be needed if above-target inflation persists, raising stakes for the September FOMC meeting.",
      "publisher": "pbs.org",
      "published_at": "2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/warsh-raises-stakes-for-feds-next-meeting-and-other-takeaways-from-jackson-hole-conference"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Two near-identical Kalshi ladders on the September outcome show consistent distribution, giving high confidence in the market-implied 3.75-4.0% central tendency."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "pbs.org: Warsh raises stakes for Fed's next meeting, and other takeaways from J",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/warsh-raises-stakes-for-feds-next-meeting-and-other-takeaways-from-jackson-hole-conference",
      "published_at": "2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-2026-08-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-75-4-0-kalshi-2026-08-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}