{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092801",
  "record_slug": "sept-nfp-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-volume-up-739x-2026-09-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-28T06:22:53.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "September payrolls seen landing near 90K to 100K",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sept NFP implied 90K-100K: Kalshi ladder, volume up 739x",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 100000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.46,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2471.6,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts the September 2026 payrolls implied range at roughly 90K-100K, with 59% pricing above 90K but only 46% above 100K.",
    "Trading volume on the Kalshi payrolls ladder surged 739x day-over-day, signaling intense fresh positioning ahead of Friday's release.",
    "The wide sell-side estimate range (35K-180K) matches the ladder's fat distribution tails, with 83% still pricing above 30K.",
    "The 125K strike commands only 28% odds, suggesting markets are not pricing a strong beat versus the 84K street consensus."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "fxstreet.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yields-rip-higher-as-focus-shifts-to-jobs-data-202609280622",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T14:34:30+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "FXStreet reports Friday's September jobs report is the week's key macro event, with consensus at 84,000 and a wide estimate range of 35,000-180,000.",
      "publisher": "fxstreet.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T06:22:53.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yields-rip-higher-as-focus-shifts-to-jobs-data-202609280622"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on September 2026 nonfarm payrolls; day-over-day volume surge of 738.8x confirms high pre-release attention."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "fxstreet.com: Yields rip higher as focus shifts to jobs data",
      "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yields-rip-higher-as-focus-shifts-to-jobs-data-202609280622",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T06:22:53.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T14:34:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-nfp-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-volume-up-739x-2026-09-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-nfp-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-volume-up-739x-2026-09-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}