{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100101",
  "record_slug": "sept-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-ladder-51-above-90k-2026-10-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "September payrolls seen landing near 90K to 100K",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sept payrolls implied 90K-100K: ladder 51% above 90K",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 nonfarm payrolls added",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 100000 jobs be added in September 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7567.48,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder pins September payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 51% above 90K, only 45% above 100K, 28% above 125K.",
    "ADP's 90K private-sector print and Wall Street's 84K consensus both sit squarely in the ladder's modal band, markets broadly consistent with incoming data.",
    "Trading volume on this ladder surged roughly 9,950x day over day, signaling intense fresh attention ahead of the Friday BLS print.",
    "The sharp drop from 65% above 80K to 51% above 90K shows the market sees meaningful downside tail risk around the consensus estimate."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jeff Cox",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/the-september-jobs-report-will-be-released-friday-heres-what-to-expect.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T07:47:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Wall Street forecasts 84,000 September nonfarm payrolls ahead of Friday's BLS release, with ADP printing 90,000 private-sector jobs.",
      "publisher": "Jeff Cox",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/the-september-jobs-report-will-be-released-friday-heres-what-to-expect.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder resolves via BLS Employment Situation; volume spike confirms high event sensitivity heading into the release."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jeff Cox: The September jobs report will be released Friday. Here's what to expe",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/the-september-jobs-report-will-be-released-friday-heres-what-to-expect.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-02T07:47:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-ladder-51-above-90k-2026-10-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-ladder-51-above-90k-2026-10-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}