{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082503",
  "record_slug": "sept-unemployment-rate-seen-4-2-4-3-prediction-markets-2026-08-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "September unemployment rate odds hold near 4.2-4.3%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Sept unemployment rate seen 4.2-4.3%: prediction markets",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 U-3 unemployment rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26SEP-T4.3",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in September?",
    "current_price": 0.3,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder implies September unemployment in the 4.2-4.3% range, with 52% above 4.2% but only 30% above 4.3%.",
    "Wolfe Research's 4.16% unemployment call sits just below the market's modal range, meaning the market is slightly more pessimistic than the Wolfe forecast.",
    "The 88% probability above 4.0% is consistent with the broader narrative of a labor market softening but not collapsing.",
    "Compare the August unemployment ladder (CM-EVT-CN1M891289), which implies 4.0-4.1% for the current month, confirming a market expectation of gradual deterioration into September."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "roic.ai",
          "source_url": "https://www.roic.ai/news/wolfe-research-sees-august-payrolls-beating-expectations-but-feds-focus-remains-inflation-08-25-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-26T08:38:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Wolfe Research forecasts August nonfarm payrolls of 65,000, above the 55,000 consensus, with unemployment expected to tick up to 4.16%.",
      "publisher": "roic.ai",
      "published_at": "2026-08-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.roic.ai/news/wolfe-research-sees-august-payrolls-beating-expectations-but-feds-focus-remains-inflation-08-25-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Prediction market ladder prices September U-3 unemployment in the 4.2-4.3% range, slightly above Wolfe's 4.16% call, with volume elevated on the August contract."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "roic.ai: Wolfe Research Sees August Payrolls Beating Expectations, But Fed's Fo",
      "url": "https://www.roic.ai/news/wolfe-research-sees-august-payrolls-beating-expectations-but-feds-focus-remains-inflation-08-25-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-08-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-26T08:38:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-unemployment-rate-seen-4-2-4-3-prediction-markets-2026-08-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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