{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082104",
  "record_slug": "september-us-unemployment-rate-ladder-implies-4-2-4-3-2026-08-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "September unemployment seen drifting to 4.2-4.3%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "September US unemployment rate: ladder implies 4.2-4.3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 US unemployment rate (U-3)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26SEP-T4.3",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in September?",
    "current_price": 0.37,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1.48,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder pricing implies September U-3 in the 4.2-4.3% range: 54% above 4.2%, 37% above 4.3%, dropping sharply to 12% above 4.4%.",
    "The CBS analysis highlights broader labor underutilization, but prediction markets are priced off the official BLS U-3 measure, not alternative metrics.",
    "The 65% probability above 4.1% signals modest upward drift from July's reading is the consensus, not a sharp deterioration.",
    "Resolution tied to BLS official U-3; alternative unemployment definitions cited in the CBS report do not affect contract settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/functional-unemployment-us-labor-market-analysis/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A CBS News analysis argues nearly 25% of US workers are functionally unemployed, well beyond the official 4.1% July U-3 rate.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/functional-unemployment-us-labor-market-analysis/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution shows a tight consensus cluster at 4.2-4.3%, with thin tails above 4.5% aligning with sparse layoff data."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Nearly 25% of U.S. workers are \"functionally unemployed,\" economic ana",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/functional-unemployment-us-labor-market-analysis/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/september-us-unemployment-rate-ladder-implies-4-2-4-3-2026-08-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/september-us-unemployment-rate-ladder-implies-4-2-4-3-2026-08-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}