{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260704DV04",
  "record_slug": "shein-ipo-k18-p25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T10:06:13+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "SHEIN IPO tracks a venue premium on the major prediction desks",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 25% vs Kalshi 18%",
  "headline": "SHEIN IPO before 2027: Kalshi 18% vs Polymarket 25%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "SHEIN IPO before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xd6487ff71f26b698891f9b5aa361a4f8037d324b2b98327faa5675cca91f4eb7",
    "question_raw": "SHEIN IPO before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.251,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 81474.68987699995,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPO-26-SHEIN",
      "question_raw": "Who will IPO before 2027?",
      "current_price": 0.18
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices SHEIN IPO at 25%, Kalshi at 18%, a 7pp spread on the same year-end claim.",
    "Polymarket is the higher side and carries roughly forty times Kalshi's volume.",
    "Polymarket participants may be assigning greater weight to SHEIN's active regulatory navigation and reported listing preparations.",
    "Claim resolves YES on a SHEIN public market debut before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-E7EE56C6C1); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 0,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 2.16
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: SHEIN IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/shein-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:06:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/shein-ipo-k18-p25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/shein-ipo-k18-p25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}