{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260729DV01",
  "record_slug": "shein-ipo-k84-p91",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T10:36:27+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "SHEIN IPO pricing stays near consensus across major desks",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 91% vs Kalshi 84%",
  "headline": "SHEIN IPO before 2027: Kalshi 84% vs Polymarket 91%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-858NYLKF97",
  "target_event_slug": "kxipo-26",
  "event_question": "SHEIN IPO before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xd6487ff71f26b698891f9b5aa361a4f8037d324b2b98327faa5675cca91f4eb7",
    "question_raw": "SHEIN IPO before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.911,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 94177.20489199998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXIPO-26-SHEIN",
      "question_raw": "Who will IPO before 2027?",
      "current_price": 0.84
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices SHEIN IPO completion at 84%, Polymarket at 91%, a 7pp gap.",
    "Polymarket carries the higher probability and the larger book, roughly 4x Kalshi's cumulative volume.",
    "Modest gap likely reflects differing resolution standards or timing ambiguity around listing venue rather than fundamental disagreement.",
    "Resolves YES if SHEIN completes a public market listing before Jan 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-E7EE56C6C1); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 135.703389,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 295.24
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: SHEIN IPO before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/shein-ipo-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:36:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/shein-ipo-k84-p91/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/shein-ipo-k84-p91.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}