{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070208",
  "record_slug": "sol-price-jan-1-2027-seen-at-100-150-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-02T05:22:54.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Solana end-2026 price consensus anchors in the 100 to 150 dollar range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "SOL price Jan 1, 2027 seen at $100-$150: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-24BW6LVF51",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsold26-27jan0100",
  "event_question": "SOL price on January 1, 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSOLD26-27JAN0100-T149.99",
    "question_raw": "SOL price  on Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.26,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9.51,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 50% above $100 but only 26% above $150, placing the market-implied SOL year-end price in the $100-$150 range.",
    "Solana's roughly 16% weekly gain is consistent with the distribution leaning toward the lower half of the $100-$150 band rather than higher strikes.",
    "A separate Kalshi contract puts just 2% on Solana ending 2026 above $500, confirming the ladder's sharp drop-off above $150 as the consensus view.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks price feed on January 1, 2027; the settlement uses the CF Benchmarks reference rate, not spot exchange prices."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/02/ether-solana-dogecoin-in-the-green-after-warsh-comments-push-bitcoin-above-usd60-000",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin climbed back above $60,000 after Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks had declined, with Solana leading major cryptocurrencies up roughly 16% on the week.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-02T05:22:54.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/02/ether-solana-dogecoin-in-the-green-after-warsh-comments-push-bitcoin-above-usd60-000"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's SOL ladder shows the market anchoring year-end expectations well below the $200 strikes despite the Warsh-driven crypto rally."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: Ether, solana, dogecoin in the green after Warsh comments push bitcoin",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/02/ether-solana-dogecoin-in-the-green-after-warsh-comments-push-bitcoin-above-usd60-000",
      "published_at": "2026-07-02T05:22:54.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sol-price-jan-1-2027-seen-at-100-150-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sol-price-jan-1-2027-seen-at-100-150-kalshi-ladder-2026-07-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}