{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102408",
  "record_slug": "solana-above-150-by-jan-1-2027-ladder-implies-below-150-2026-10-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Solana above $150 before year-end stays below 25 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Solana above $150 by Jan 1 2027: ladder implies below $150",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-26",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-L4YY954KX3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsolmaxy-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Solana spot price ceiling, January 1 2027",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSOLMAXY-27JAN01-150",
    "question_raw": "Will the spot price of Solana be above $150.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 54.98,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder prices only 25% on Solana reaching above $150 before January 1, 2027, with spot near $100.83.",
    "The ladder distribution falls rapidly from 25% at $150 to 17% at $160 and 11% at $170, implying the market sees sub-$150 as the base case.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-1TG94NXKV4) puts only 2% on Solana ending 2026 above $500, consistent with the ladder's bearish upper-end pricing.",
    "Resolves via the stated ladder mechanism; the $100 current spot level means a 50% price move is needed just to reach the 25% strike."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "theblock.co",
          "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/newsletters/the-daily/2026-10-24-hsbc-stablecoin-more-crypto-news-428396",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T07:47:50+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "HSBC launched its RedCoin Hong Kong dollar stablecoin for retail users, while Solana spot prices traded near $100.83 amid broad crypto weakness.",
      "publisher": "theblock.co",
      "published_at": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/newsletters/the-daily/2026-10-24-hsbc-stablecoin-more-crypto-news-428396"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder contract (unspecified venue); the full distribution strongly implies the market consensus is for Solana to finish 2026 well below $150."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "theblock.co: HSBC's RedCoin stablecoin goes live, and more crypto news",
      "url": "https://www.theblock.co/newsletters/the-daily/2026-10-24-hsbc-stablecoin-more-crypto-news-428396",
      "published_at": "2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T07:47:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/solana-above-150-by-jan-1-2027-ladder-implies-below-150-2026-10-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/solana-above-150-by-jan-1-2027-ladder-implies-below-150-2026-10-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}