{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102804",
  "record_slug": "south-carolina-senate-kalshi-72-republican-2026-10-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican holds slight edge in South Carolina Senate race",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 72%",
  "headline": "South Carolina Senate: Kalshi 72% Republican",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YB0M8XXMW8",
  "target_event_slug": "senatesc-26",
  "event_question": "Who will win the South Carolina Senate election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATESC-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?",
    "current_price": 0.72,
    "volume_24h_usd": 96065.13,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "United States Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Republican win in the South Carolina Senate race at 72%, making it a moderately favored but not locked-in outcome.",
    "Trump's in-state rally visit aligns with the Republican-lean pricing, though 28% odds still leave meaningful uncertainty.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on New Hampshire holding a same-party governor-senator combo sits at 86%, illustrating how different state-level races carry varying certainty.",
    "Kalshi resolves via United States Congress certification; final margin, not Trump rally count, determines the outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T14:47:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump visited South Carolina on the campaign trail as the Senate race draws attention in the final days before midterm Election Day.",
      "publisher": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 72% Republican read on South Carolina is consistent with a lean-red state in a Democratic wave environment, reflecting a partial but not complete blue-wave spillover."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics: Live Midterm Election Updates: Peltola denies \"tricking voters,\" Trump",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T14:47:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/south-carolina-senate-kalshi-72-republican-2026-10-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/south-carolina-senate-kalshi-72-republican-2026-10-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}